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 The Humanitarian Fallout of Trump's 2025 USAID Cuts: A Crisis for Pakistan and Beyond 

By Tahir Ali Shah                                                                                                                

In January 2025, upon commencing his second term, President Donald Trump initiated a series of substantial reductions in foreign aid, targeting the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). These cuts led to the suspension of over $845 million in aid projects in Pakistan alone, affecting 39 major initiatives across various sectors. Increased risk of polio resurgence due to halted immunization programs further exacerbates the crisis. This article examines the implications of these cuts for Pakistan's humanitarian and emergency response efforts and the long-term consequences for the country’s vulnerable populations, including over 3 million Afghan refugees impacted.

For decades, Pakistan has been a key recipient of U.S. foreign assistance, with USAID funding critical sectors such as health, education, disaster relief, and women's empowerment. The abrupt funding cuts in 2025 have disrupted essential humanitarian programs, leaving millions of Pakistanis without necessary support. The funding reductions were particularly damaging to programs addressing Disaster Relief and Climate Resilience. Pakistan is one of the countries most vulnerable to climate change, facing recurrent floods, droughts, and heatwaves. USAID-funded disaster preparedness and response programs, such as early warning systems and emergency relief efforts, were significantly impacted. Following the 2022 catastrophic floods that displaced over 33 million people and caused an estimated $30 billion in damages, Pakistan had relied heavily on international aid to rebuild infrastructure and support affected communities. The 2025 USAID cuts left many flood-affected areas without adequate rehabilitation resources, increasing long-term vulnerabilities.

USAID has historically played a crucial role in supporting Pakistan’s healthcare system, particularly in polio eradication, maternal and child health, and disease prevention. The funding cuts have led to the closure of numerous health clinics in rural areas, where access to medical care is already limited. The suspension of immunization programs has heightened the risk of polio resurgence, a disease that Pakistan has been struggling to eliminate for decades. Prior to the cuts, Pakistan had reduced polio cases by 99% since 2014, but experts warn that a reversal could see cases rise exponentially without consistent vaccination efforts.

Pakistan has one of the world’s highest rates of out-of-school children, with an estimated 22.8 million children aged 5-16 not attending school. USAID-funded education programs have been instrumental in increasing enrollment, particularly for girls. The withdrawal of funding has forced several community schools to shut down, further exacerbating the education crisis. Additionally, initiatives aimed at empowering women—such as vocational training and microfinance programs—have suffered setbacks, limiting opportunities for economic independence and social progress. Research indicates that for every $1 invested in women’s education, there is a $2.80 return in economic growth.

Rising inflation and economic instability have made food security a growing concern in Pakistan. USAID’s Food for Peace program previously helped mitigate malnutrition among children and pregnant women in Pakistan’s poorest regions. The suspension of food aid has led to an increase in hunger and malnutrition, particularly in Balochistan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and Sindh. According to the World Food Programme, prior to the cuts, approximately 36.9% of Pakistan's population faced food insecurity. This number is projected to rise significantly due to aid reduction.

Pakistan hosts one of the world’s largest refugee populations, with over 3 million Afghan refugees living within its borders. USAID funding had supported relief efforts, including shelter, healthcare, and education for refugees. The funding cuts have left humanitarian organizations struggling to provide essential services, worsening conditions in refugee camps and straining Pakistan’s resources at a time when the country is already facing economic hardships. UNHCR data shows that only 38% of the required funding for Afghan refugee assistance in Pakistan was met in the year following the cuts.

Beyond the direct humanitarian impact, the USAID funding cuts have also altered Pakistan’s geopolitical landscape. Historically, U.S. aid has been a critical tool in strengthening diplomatic ties and countering extremist influences in the region. With the U.S. reducing its involvement, other global powers, particularly China and Gulf nations, have increased their engagement in Pakistan.

China, through its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), has positioned itself as a key development partner for Pakistan. However, many analysts argue that China’s investments focus primarily on infrastructure and debt-driven projects rather than direct humanitarian assistance. While Pakistan has welcomed Chinese economic support, the lack of humanitarian-focused aid from new partners leaves critical gaps in disaster relief and social welfare programs.

Similarly, Gulf nations such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE have provided financial assistance in the form of loans and investments, but their support is largely tied to political and economic interests rather than humanitarian relief. This shift raises concerns about Pakistan's long-term ability to respond effectively to humanitarian crises without traditional Western aid channels.

The USAID funding cuts have sparked strong reactions both within Pakistan and among international humanitarian organizations. NGOs that previously relied on U.S. grants have been forced to downsize or shut down operations, leading to widespread job losses in the humanitarian sector. Civil society organizations have called on the Pakistani government to increase domestic funding for disaster response and social services to compensate for the loss of U.S. assistance.

The international community, including the United Nations and European donors, has attempted to fill some of the funding gaps. However, the shortfall remains substantial, and alternative funding sources have not been sufficient to fully replace lost USAID assistance. Pakistan has also reached out to multilateral institutions such as the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank for additional support, but these funds often come in the form of loans rather than direct humanitarian aid.

The long-term implications of the 2025 USAID cuts for Pakistan’s humanitarian sector are profound. The loss of funding has created a domino effect, weakening emergency response capabilities, increasing dependency on foreign loans, and exacerbating social inequalities. Vulnerable populations, particularly women, children, and displaced communities, are bearing the brunt of these cuts, with fewer resources available to address their needs.

Additionally, Pakistan’s ability to respond to future crises—whether natural disasters, health pandemics, or refugee influxes—has been severely compromised. Without sustained international support, the country faces the risk of prolonged humanitarian crises, economic instability, and increased social unrest.

The USAID funding cuts under President Trump’s administration have dealt a significant blow to Pakistan’s humanitarian and emergency response efforts. While the U.S. justified these cuts as part of its "America First" policy, the broader consequences extend far beyond financial savings. For Pakistan, the loss of critical humanitarian assistance has left millions vulnerable, strained government resources, and reshaped international alliances.