The Unseen Casualties: Iran-Israel War's Devastating Toll on Civilian Lives and Well-being

The Second Article, titled “The Unfolding War: Can Diplomacy Halt the Iran-Israel Cascade?” will follow

The relationship between Iran and Israel has undergone a dramatic and hostile transformation over the past several decades, moving from a period of de facto alliance to the brink of open warfare. Under the Shah's rule, Iran was a key regional ally for Israel, with the two countries sharing intelligence and engaging in military and economic cooperation. This pragmatic partnership was rooted in a shared suspicion of Arab nationalism and Soviet influence in the Middle East. However, the 1979 Islamic Revolution in Iran marked a profound and immediate rupture in these relations. The new theocratic regime in Tehran, led by Ayatollah Khomeini, adopted a fiercely anti-Zionist ideology, viewing Israel as an illegitimate "Little Satan" and an imperialist outpost in the heart of the Muslim world. This ideological animosity quickly translated into a strategic rivalry, with Iran actively supporting anti-Israel militant groups such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and Palestinian Islamic Jihad. For years, this conflict was waged in the shadows, characterized by covert operations, assassinations of Iranian nuclear scientists, cyber-attacks, and a proxy war fought across the region, from Syria to Yemen. Israel, for its part, has viewed Iran's nuclear program as an existential threat, launching a relentless campaign of sabotage and diplomatic pressure to thwart Tehran's atomic ambitions. This long-simmering "shadow war" created a volatile and deeply antagonistic environment, setting the stage for a potential direct military confrontation.

The direct and open war between Iran and Israel has now raged for over a week, a dramatic escalation of a long-running shadow conflict. What began with Israel's "Operation Rising Lion" on June 13, 2025, and Iran's swift retaliation, "Operation True Promise III," has now turned into a grim, ongoing reality for the people of both nations. The fighting has intensified, with both sides launching new strikes and the number of dead and wounded rising daily.

The initial casualty reports have been tragically surpassed, resulted in significant casualties on both sides, with estimates suggesting from different reports, between 224 to over 600, fatalities in Iran following Israeli airstrikes, and at least 24 deaths and over 200 injuries in Israel due to Iran's retaliatory missile strikes, a barrage of over 450 missiles and 1,000 drones launched, targeting areas including a hospital and residential structures in Tel Aviv. Iran's alleged use of Cluster Bombs, which are outlawed in over 100 countries due to their indiscriminate nature and long-term risks, has raised serious humanitarian concerns. Cluster bombs can cause widespread harm to civilians and leave behind deadly remnants that can harm communities for years to come.

Israel's military campaign continues to target what it describes as nuclear and military sites deep within Iran. Recent strikes have reportedly hit industrial areas, missile storage facilities, and even the headquarters of a sensitive research institute in Tehran. In a significant development, an Iranian nuclear scientist was reportedly killed in a drone strike on his residence in the capital. This follows Israel's initial claim of killing several high-ranking commanders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and other scientists. Israel's Defense Minister has stated an intent to intensify attacks on "symbols of the regime" in Tehran to destabilize it.

Iran, in turn, has not let up its missile and drone attacks. While Israel's advanced air defense systems, like the Iron Dome and David's Sling, have intercepted the majority of the incoming threats, the sheer volume of projectiles has at times overwhelmed these defenses. Missiles have struck near industrial facilities in the southern city of Beersheba and the northern city of Haifa, causing injuries and damage. The psychological impact on the Israeli public has been profound, shattering the long-held sense of security provided by their military's technological expertise.

The international community has ramped up diplomatic efforts to de-escalate the crisis. The United Nations Security Council held an emergency meeting, with the UN Secretary-General warning that the conflict is "racing towards" a crisis that could "ignite a fire that no one can control." The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has made a desperate plea for a halt to the fighting, warning of a potential "catastrophic" radiological disaster if Iran's nuclear power plants are hit. The IAEA has also reported contamination at the Natanz nuclear facility, a site of Israeli strikes.

Top diplomats from Germany, France, and the United Kingdom met with their Iranian counterpart in Geneva in an attempt to find a way out of the conflict. While there is a stated willingness from the Iranian side to continue talks, they maintain that any negotiations are conditional on a complete stop to Israeli attacks. The United States has so far not become directly involved militarily but continues to provide crucial support to Israel. Behind the scenes, there are reports of a "two-week deadline" until July 4, 2025from the US for a diplomatic solution to emerge before it considers its own actions. To avoid possible American air strikes, which would mark a significant escalation in the conflict that has already claimed hundreds of lives and displaced many more.

The war is not just being fought with missiles and jets. The long-standing intelligence war continues, with Israel seemingly maintaining an upper hand in penetrating Iranian security. The recent killing of another nuclear scientist underscores this ongoing, covert dimension of the conflict.

For the ordinary people in both Iran and Israel, the situation is terrifying. In Israel, families live with the constant threat of sirens and missile attacks. In Iran, civilians are bearing the brunt of the Israeli airstrikes, and the government has imposed internet restrictions, further isolating its people.

A Deepening Humanitarian Catastrophe

Beyond the immediate casualties, the conflict has triggered a severe humanitarian emergency, crippling essential services in both nations. In Iran, repeated airstrikes on infrastructure have reportedly damaged power grids and water treatment facilities, raising the specter of widespread disease. Hospitals, already struggling to cope with the influx of trauma patients, are facing critical shortages of medicine, blood supplies, and fuel for generators. Humanitarian agencies on the ground report immense difficulties in reaching affected areas due to the destruction of roads and the constant threat of attack. The conflict is creating a new wave of internal displacement, with terrified families fleeing targeted cities and seeking refuge in safer, yet ill-equipped, rural areas. This exacerbates a pre-existing economic crisis in Iran, pushing millions deeper into poverty and food insecurity.

The Imperative for Humanitarian Action

In the face of this escalating crisis, the role of humanitarian organizations becomes both critical and nervous with threat. Their primary and most urgent call is for an immediate ceasefire and for both warring parties to adhere to International Humanitarian Law (IHL), which explicitly mandates the protection of civilians and non-military infrastructure. Humanitarians on the ground are working to negotiate the establishment of secure corridors to deliver life-saving aid, such as medical supplies, food, and clean water, to besieged populations. Their mission, guided by the principles of neutrality and impartiality, is to conduct rapid needs assessments and provide assistance based on need alone. However, their efforts are severely hampered by the lack of security guarantees and the politicization of aid. The international community is being urged to not only support diplomatic efforts but also to fully fund the humanitarian response to prevent a complete collapse of essential services for millions of civilians caught in the crossfire.

The red lines that for years prevented direct, overt military confrontations between the two regional powers have been crossed. With each passing day of this open war, the risk of a wider regional conflict that could draw in other countries grows, and the human cost continues to rise.

About the Author: Tahir Ali Shah is a humanitarian professional with over 20 years of experience managing protection and development programs across South Asia, the Middle East, and Africa. He has worked extensively in refugee response, child protection, GBV prevention, and humanitarian advocacy. He can be reached at tshaha@gmail.com