The Demographic Tide: Understanding Pakistan's Population Challenge

By Tahir Ali Shah

Pakistan's population story is an important way to look at its history and future. It started with the struggle after the 1947 partition, but now it is one of the country's biggest challenges. This population journey, especially in what was West Pakistan, shows how religion, government decisions, and different events have influenced the country's development.

Decadal Population Trends in West Pakistan (Now Pakistan), 1947–2037

Period	Population Trend	Approx. Population	% Increase	Key Events & Drivers	Religious & Cultural Influences	Strategic Implications
1947–1957	Moderate post-Partition growth	~34M → ~40M	~18%	Refugee resettlement, early nation-building, low mortality start	High fertility norms, Islamic family values	Need for infrastructure, housing, and food security
1957–1967	Accelerated demographic growth	~40M → ~53M	~32%	Green Revolution, migration to cities, improved health services	Religious support for large families	Urbanization, basic services expansion
1967–1977	Continued high growth	~53M → ~72M	~36%	High birth rates, no national family planning policy	Family planning taboo, pro-natalist religious stance	Population density pressure, need for food, and jobs
1977–1987	Sharp rise due to Afghan influx	~72M → ~97M	~35%	Soviet-Afghan war, Zia’s Islamization, refugee influx	Contraceptive opposition by clergy, family honor norms	Ethnic shifts, pressure on schools, sanitation
1987–1997	Growth remains rapid	~97M → ~125M	~29%	Democratic transitions, limited FP investments	Clergy resistance, low literacy	Health system strain, food insecurity, political fragmentation
1997–2007	Slowdown begins	~125M → ~161M	~29%	First Population Policy (2002), rise of NGOs, private sector role	Emerging acceptance of birth spacing	Education and water service deficits, donor support ramps up
2007–2017	Sustained but slower growth	~161M → ~207M	~29%	Urban expansion, mHealth, public awareness	Religion engages cautiously with FP discourse.	The youth bulge appears, education and energy needs surge.
2017–2027	Growth slowing measurably	~207M → ~245M (est.)	~18%	Urbanization, digital campaigns, wider contraceptive awareness	Religious messaging starts aligning with FP	Job creation, climate stress, gender equality drive
2027–2037	Manageable but still high	~245M → ~287M (proj.)	~17%	Declining fertility, improved education, economic uncertainty	Faith-based support for family health model emerges	Ticking clock for economic reform, youth employment

A History of Unprecedented Growth

Since it became independent, Pakistan has had one of the fastest-growing populations in the world. In 1947, about 33.7 million people lived in the area now known as Pakistan. The partition from India led to many Muslim refugees coming to Pakistan, which increased the population. At that time, cultural values influenced by Islam encouraged large families and early marriages.

From 1951 to 1972, the population grew quickly. The Green Revolution in the 1960s improved food production, which helped lower death rates. Many people moved to cities like Karachi, Lahore, and Rawalpindi for jobs. By 1972, the population had reached around 63 million, and many religious scholars believed that having large families was a blessing, discouraging the use of contraceptives.

Between 1972 and 1998, the population continued to grow rapidly. The Soviet-Afghan War in the 1980s brought over three million Afghan refugees to Pakistan, especially in provinces like Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan. At the same time, General Zia-ul-Haq's policies focused less on family planning and were supported by some conservative religious leaders. As a result, the population increased from 84.2 million in 1981 to 132 million by 1998, more than doubling in a little over 25 years. This population growth led to more urbanization, increased ethnic tensions, and strained public services.

In response, Pakistan introduced its first official Population Policy in 2002, which aimed to lower birth rates and improve access to reproductive healthcare. However, the policy faced problems due to inconsistent governance and ongoing religious opposition. Even though cities grew and more women received education, the population still rose to about 207 million by 2017.

Now, Pakistan is at a critical point. With a population of over 240 million and 64% of people under 30, the country faces a large "youth bulge." While the birth rate has gone down from 6.8 children per woman in the 1980s to about 3.6 today, it is still high for the region. Many people, especially in rural areas, need better access to family planning.

The Evolving Role of Religion

Religion has played a big role in shaping Pakistan's population. For many years, many people believed that having large families was a blessing and that Islam was against using contraception. This made it hard for modern family planning programs to succeed because they were often seen as things pushed by the West.

However, things are starting to change. Important groups like Al-Azhar University and Pakistan's Council of Islamic Ideology have started supporting the idea of planning families and taking care of mothers and children’s health. This has made it easier to talk about family planning in a way that resonates with local beliefs. Now, instead of focusing on controlling the population, the conversation is about family stability and economic well-being, which more people are starting to accept.

Outdated Strategies and Future Imperatives

 For Pakistan, having a large population used to be seen as a strength. It was thought to give the country an edge over India, provide soldiers for the military, and send workers abroad to send back money. A growing population was also needed for farming. But these ideas are now outdated and irrelevant in the face of climate change, food and water shortages, urban decay, and widespread unemployment.

Looking ahead, the numbers are alarming. If Pakistan's population keeps growing at its current rate of 2.15% per year, it'll reach a staggering 319 million by 2037 - a 54% increase from 2017. To tackle this challenge, Pakistan needs a comprehensive plan that brings together different government departments, including health, education, planning, and religious affairs. We need to work with religious leaders to promote family planning in a way that's consistent with Islamic values.

Investing in adolescent girls' health and education is crucial. Keeping them in school, delaying marriage, and teaching them about reproductive health can have a huge impact in the long run. We should also use digital media to reach young people in both cities and rural areas. Population programs need to be tailored to each province's unique culture and language. And demographic planning should be linked to economic strategy. A young population can be an asset only if they're skilled, healthy, and have good jobs. This requires investing in quality education and creating green jobs.

All national planning, from dealing with climate change to managing water and preparing for disasters, should take these population projections into account. Pakistan's population growth is no longer just about numbers - it's about the country's future stability and prosperity. The window of opportunity to turn this challenge into an asset is closing fast. It's time for decisive action to build a better future for all Pakistanis.

References

• Pakistan Bureau of Statistics. (2023). Census of Pakistan 2023.
• UNFPA Pakistan. (2024). State of World Population Report.
• Council of Islamic Ideology. (2018). Religious Position on Birth Spacing in Islam.
• World Bank Data. (2024). Population and Fertility Rates - Pakistan.
• Ministry of Planning & Development. (2023). Pakistan Vision 2035.

About the Author: Tahir Ali Shah is a humanitarian professional with over 20 years of experience managing protection and development programs across South Asia, the Middle East, and Africa. He has worked extensively in refugee response, child protection, GBV prevention, and humanitarian advocacy. He can be reached at tshaha@gmail.com