The Unending Trauma: A Crisis of Statelessness, Fatigue, and Futility for Rohingya Refugees in Bangladesh

The Unending Trauma: A Crisis of Statelessness, Fatigue, and Futility for Rohingya Refugees in Bangladesh

Tahir Ali Shah

Executive Summary: The Protracted Catastrophe and Policy Imperatives

The displacement of over one million Rohingya from Myanmar to Bangladesh represents one of the most severe and prolonged cases of mass statelessness in modern history. Seven years after the genocidal campaign of 2017, the crisis is marked by a deep-rooted humanitarian, psychological, and geopolitical stalemate. The refugee population, concentrated in overcrowded camps in Cox’s Bazar, finds itself in a triple bind of systemic failures: ongoing psychological trauma, the damaging effects of global funding neglect, and a complete geopolitical and security deadlock that hinders any meaningful progress toward safe repatriation or dignified integration.

The core cause of the current crisis is the deliberate creation of statelessness through Myanmar’s 1982 Citizenship Law. In Bangladesh, refugees continue to face persecution in camp life, where high rates of depression and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) are directly linked to severe stressors experienced after their displacement. These stressors are exacerbated by critical denials of basic rights, such as access to education and employment, due to Bangladesh’s status as a non-signatory to the 1951 Refugee Convention.

A significant factor contributing to the crisis today is global funding neglect. Cuts to food rations by the World Food Programme (WFP) and the threat to education for 230,000 children highlight this funding gap. This financial crisis fuels protection failures, leading to predictable increases in trafficking, child labor, and forced marriage. Furthermore, the path to voluntary repatriation remains entirely blocked. In Myanmar’s Rakhine State, the security situation has deteriorated under the influence of the Arakan Army (AA), which perpetuates the systemic persecution policies of the military, while international pressure is mitigated by China and ASEAN’s firm stance on non-interference.

I. A History Forged in Exclusion: The Architecture of Statelessness

1.1. The Colonial Legacy and Post-Independence Betrayal

The crisis of Rohingya statelessness is not an ancient condition but is deeply rooted in the colonial and postcolonial history of Myanmar. The Rohingya, who have lived for centuries in what is now Rakhine (formerly Arakan) State, experienced a brief period of recognition following Myanmar's independence in 1948. At that time, the Union of Burma initially recognized the Rohingya as an ethnic group of Burma and granted them citizenship. This historical acknowledgement of their belonging is crucial for understanding the current policy debates, as it affirms that their current statelessness is a forced legal condition, intentionally imposed, rather than a natural, long-standing one.

However, this early recognition was systematically challenged. Exclusion was gradually carried out under subsequent constitutional changes, paving the way for eventual mass disenfranchisement. The Union of Burma’s recognition was quickly replaced by decades of increasing prejudice and persecution.

1.2. The Weaponization of Law: Myanmar’s 1982 Citizenship Act

The ultimate step in the legal erasure of the Rohingya was the enactment of the 1982 Citizenship Law. This legislation officially designated the Rohingya as stateless, refusing to recognize their ethnic identity and eliminating all legal paths to citizenship. The law identified 135 ethnic groups for citizenship but systematically excluded the Rohingya, despite evidence that they had been living in the area for generations. Myanmar systematically denies the population legal status under its domestic citizenship regimes, meeting the precise international definition of statelessness.

This denial of national identity is understood by legal experts as far more than mere discrimination. The 1982 Law provided the foundation for mass persecution, acting as both a "tool and a precursor of identity-based destruction". The international community must hold Myanmar accountable for this act, which constitutes both an element of genocide and a crime against humanity. This legal disenfranchisement is devastating, as it strips the population of access to fundamental human rights such as legal identity, education, healthcare, and employment, setting the stage for the persecution and violence that followed decades later. The legal mechanism of statelessness, instituted decades ago, remains the primary political tool used by Myanmar. By successfully denying the Rohingya their identity and national belonging, the government minimized international scrutiny and legal obligations before the 2017 violence, and, critically, this legal non-existence actively prevents any meaningful, safe return today.

Table 1: Historical Timeline: The Legal Architecture of Statelessness

Year/Period	Event/Legislation	Impact on Rohingya Status
Post-1948 Independence	Union of Burma formed	Rohingya initially recognized as an ethnic group and granted citizenship
1982	Citizenship Law Enactment	Systematically denied citizenship rights; established stateless status by law.
August 2017	"Operation Clearance" (Genocidal Campaign)	Forced displacement of over 750,000 Rohingya, defined as a crime against humanity

1.3. The 2017 Genocide: The Defining Displacement Event

Following reported attacks by the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA) on police and army posts, the Myanmar military launched a genocidal response in August 2017. This "Operation Clearance" involved a scorched earth campaign characterized by systematic rape, murder, burning of entire villages, and torture of civilians. In response, over 750,000 Rohingya fled across the border to Bangladesh in search of shelter, joining hundreds of thousands of prior arrivals.

The severity of these abuses led to declarations of "the gravest crimes under international law" by the UN Fact-Finding Mission. The government of Bangladesh has since commemorated August 25 as 'Rohingya Genocide Remembrance Day', underscoring the internationally recognized nature of the atrocities that led to the mass displacement. As of 2021, over 900,000 Rohingya remained in Bangladesh's refugee camps, a testament to the scale of the forced expulsion.

II. Life in Limbo: The Unfolding Psychological and Legal Trauma

2.1. The Camp Environment: Scale, Vulnerability, and Conditions

The Rohingya crisis is currently contained within Bangladesh, where over one million Rohingya reside in extremely dense camps in Cox's Bazar. These communities face persistent environmental and infrastructural challenges. Bangladesh is globally recognized as the ninth most climate-vulnerable country, making the camps highly susceptible to natural hazards. Recent events, such as Cyclone Remal in May 2024, have resulted in severe flooding, driving humanitarian needs and testing the resilience of communities. These environmental shifts contribute to displacement and migration, placing further strain on the vulnerable population.

2.2. Trauma as a Daily Reality: Prevalence and Perpetuation

The overwhelming majority of refugees living in Cox’s Bazar camps—87%—have reported experiencing at least one traumatic event. The prevalence of depressive symptoms and PTSD remains alarmingly high. Health professionals recognize that the trauma experiences of the Rohingya are ongoing and span pre-, during, and post-migration periods, extending far beyond the initial escape from persecution.

A critical analysis of mental health outcomes demonstrates that current camp conditions actively sustain psychological distress. Exposure to post-displacement stressors—the daily realities of chronic hardship, lack of freedom, and economic desperation—is strongly associated with an increased likelihood of depressive symptoms, even when accounting for the severity of past trauma. In contrast, the analysis found that living in a household that received income was associated with a decreased likelihood of PTSD. This finding profoundly changes the framework for response: the lack of livelihood and chronic hardship acts as a continuous trauma perpetuator, effectively maintaining high rates of psychological distress. Humanitarian failure in providing adequate livelihood and security is, therefore, not merely a logistical shortcoming but a direct public health driver of ongoing mental illness.

Table 3: Chronic Trauma and Post-Displacement Stressors Among Rohingya Refugees

Condition/Stressor	Prevalence/Finding	Implication for Mental Health Support
Exposure to Traumatic Events	87% reported experiencing at least one traumatic event	Trauma spans pre-, during, and post-migration periods
Depressive Symptoms	High prevalence	Strongly associated with post-displacement stressors (current living conditions)
Association with Income	Living in a household that received income decreased the likelihood of PTSD	Income and livelihood support are direct mental health interventions
Nature of Trauma	Ongoing and complex (systemic violence, sexual violence, forced displacement)	Requires holistic, trauma-informed interventions and specialized clinical staff

2.3. Structural Barriers to Healing: Mental Health and Psychosocial Support (MHPSS)

Despite the profound mental health needs, the infrastructure for psychosocial support is severely limited, compounded by significant structural barriers to accessing care. The complex psychological consequences of systemic violence and displacement necessitate trauma-informed interventions. To address the crisis, service providers recommend scaling up specialized MHPSS capacity. This includes increasing the number of clinical psychologists and psychiatrists stationed at the camps, ensuring they are available daily rather than based on a rotation. Furthermore, basic MHPSS training should be mandatory for all humanitarian staff, regardless of sector, and programming must focus on building capacity within the community itself.

2.4. The Invisible Walls: Legal Disenfranchisement in Exile

The host nation, Bangladesh, has demonstrated enormous solidarity in receiving the Rohingya. However, its legal framework severely limits the rights and agency of the refugees. Bangladesh is a dualist state and is not a signatory to the 1951 Refugee Convention or its 1967 Protocol, despite being bound by customary international law regarding non-refoulement.

This legal gap translates into a "severe lack of legal status" for the majority of the population. Because they lack formal refugee status, they are systemically denied access to fundamental rights and services, including education, employment, legal protection, and livelihood options. This legal disenfranchisement, coupled with their core stateless status unaddressed by Myanmar, exacerbates their vulnerability to human rights abuses and creates a deep sense of "hopelessness and despair," particularly among the youth. This approach, while preserving Bangladesh’s national sovereignty and maintaining the pretense of temporariness required for eventual repatriation, functionally mimics the consequences of statelessness. It locks the refugee population into a state of indefinite administrative limbo, directly restricting their ability to build resilience and contributing significantly to the psychological stressors detailed above.

III. The Crisis of Compassion: Humanitarian Funding Fatigue and Its Human Cost

3.1. Quantification of Apathy: The Global Funding Crisis

The humanitarian response in Cox’s Bazar is perpetually undermined by a "persistent and serious lack of funding". Globally, the situation reflects a "deadly confluence of factors"—rising displacement, shrinking funding, and political apathy. For 2025, UNHCR’s funding requirements were $10.6 billion; midway through the year, only 23% had been met. This shortfall has forced $1.4 billion of essential programs globally to be cut or put on hold, meaning up to 11.6 million displaced people risk losing direct humanitarian assistance.

3.2. From Ration Cuts to Malnutrition and Death

The consequences of this global financial crisis have been immediate and devastating for the Rohingya population. In 2023, faced with an unprecedented funding crisis, the WFP was forced to reduce its food assistance from the full entitlement (approximately $12.50) down to a meager $8 per person per month, leaving refugees with only 25 cents to meet their daily food needs.

The health crisis that followed was predictable and rapid. By November 2023, the Global Acute Malnutrition (GAM) rate among children surged to 15.1%, a figure that exceeded the WHO emergency threshold and marked the highest rate recorded since the 2017 displacement. While partial increases brought the ration entitlement back up to $11 by mid-2025, the vulnerability of the entire system to donor fluctuations means the risk of hunger and malnutrition persists, placing severe strain on the population.

3.3. Erosion of Future Hope: Protection Failures

The financial disparity severely impacts every necessary service, including healthcare, WASH, and protection measures. Education for some 230,000 children in the camps is critically "at risk of being suspended" due to cuts. Globally, financial aid and the delivery of emergency relief items have been cut by 60%.

This funding fatigue is not merely a financial problem; it is a human protection crisis. The $6.50 reduction in food assistance forces vulnerable families to adopt high-risk coping strategies. This predictable outcome means that "school dropouts, child labour and child marriage" will increase, and "household conflicts will escalate, leading to a rise in intimate partner violence". Furthermore, as families struggle to secure sufficient food, criminal activity, including kidnappings for ransom, and the influence of human traffickers and armed groups, are all predicted to worsen. The withdrawal of financial support actively undermines the protective function of the camps and directly contradicts humanitarian principles.

Table 2: The Humanitarian Investment Deficit: Consequences of Funding Fatigue

Metric/Component	2023/2025 Data Point	Consequence/Impact
UNHCR Global Funding Met (2025 Mid-Year)	Only 23% of requirements met	$1.4 billion in essential global programs cut or put on hold
WFP Food Ration Entitlement	Reduced from ~$12.50 to $8 per person/month	Immediate spike in hunger, resulting in dangerous coping mechanisms
Global Acute Malnutrition (GAM) Rate	Rose to 15.1% (Exceeding WHO emergency threshold)	The highest rate recorded since the 2017 displacement
Education Services Risk	Education for ~230,000 children at risk of suspension	Erosion of long-term stability and future human capital
Indirect Protection Risks	Increased vulnerability to trafficking, child labor, and child marriage	Direct result of unmet basic needs ($6.50 reduction)

IV. The Structural Impasse: Analyzing the Lack of Durable Solutions

4.1. Catastrophe, Not Repatriation: Insecurity in Rakhine State

The universally preferred solution for the Rohingya crisis is voluntary, safe, dignified, and sustainable repatriation. However, experts agree that such a return requires Myanmar to fully address the root causes of the crisis, including verifiable guarantees of rights to security, citizenship, and equality. Crucially, the current security and political conditions in Rakhine State are "nowhere near ready for Rohingya to return safely," and attempts to push ahead with repatriation are warned to be "catastrophic".

4.2. A New Oppressor? The Role of the Arakan Army (AA)

The security landscape in northern Rakhine State has been transformed since late 2023 by an offensive launched by the Arakan Army (AA), which now has effective control over Myanmar’s entire border with Bangladesh. This power shift, however, has failed to alleviate the persecution endured by the Rohingya. For many refugees, the AA has merely replaced the Myanmar military as the primary oppressor, with living conditions often feeling "painfully similar" or even worse.

The documentation of abuses under AA control reveals a disheartening replication of systemic exclusion policies. Like the Myanmar military, AA members deny Rohingya identity, referring to them only as Bengalis or Muslims, and stating: "This is not your country". Rohingya communities face mandatory forced labor, including carrying stones to checkpoints and cleaning up the aftermath of fighting, with refusal resulting in severe beatings or threats of expulsion. Furthermore, discriminatory restrictions are imposed, such as mandatory fees for severely limited travel documents and bans on fishing or other livelihood options, worsening the food crisis. This immediate adoption of the military’s core policies by a non-state authority confirms that anti-Rohingya systemic exclusion is deeply institutionalized within the political and social fabric of Rakhine State, cementing the conclusion that a safe return is highly improbable in the medium term.

4.3. The Geopolitical Stranglehold

The political and diplomatic solution to the Rohingya crisis remains stalled, largely due to external geopolitical dynamics that protect the regime responsible for the atrocities. China has played a crucial role in providing diplomatic coverage for Myanmar, insisting on respecting its sovereignty and opposing humanitarian and political intervention. This position is strategically motivated. Beijing seeks to resist the establishment of an international precedent for intervention, especially concerning the oppression of ethnic and religious minorities, given its own policies in Xinjiang. This diplomatic firewall ensures that the necessary conditions for durable solutions, accountability, and citizenship rights will not be forced upon Myanmar.

Regionally, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) adheres strictly to its "Way," relying on dialogue and consultation while maintaining the strict norm of non-interference in internal affairs, enshrined in the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation. ASEAN lacks the legal mechanisms or the political will to impose sanctions or expel Myanmar, effectively guaranteeing regional impunity. Furthermore, key trading partners of Myanmar, including China, Japan, and India, have refrained from imposing sanctions, further stabilizing the regime. The collective diplomatic and economic inaction by these major regional powers creates an impenetrable geopolitical lock-in, ensuring the crisis remains stuck in the status quo.

4.4. The Resettlement Safety Valve: Limited and Symbolic

In the absence of clear pathways for repatriation, resettlement has continued for the most vulnerable Rohingya refugees as a "complementary pathway". The United States, for example, has committed to considering referrals submitted by UNHCR as part of its global Refugee Admissions Program, acknowledging the "genocide and crimes against humanity" suffered by the population.

While resettlement programs are essential for offering a safe route for highly vulnerable individuals, the scope of these efforts remains limited and symbolic compared to the overall population. The number of refugees resettled is far too small to affect the overall population of over one million. UNHCR’s strategy confirms that the primary, although currently unattainable, goal remains voluntary repatriation.

V. Conclusion and Recommendations: Breaking the Cycle of Perpetual Trauma

The Rohingya crisis is defined by a manufactured statelessness that persists in Myanmar, yet is functionally replicated in the host country by the denial of basic rights. The result is a cycle of perpetual trauma, sustained by chronic post-displacement stressors and exacerbated by donor fatigue. Breaking this cycle requires a multi-pronged strategy addressing the humanitarian, legal, and political dimensions simultaneously.

5.1. Recommendations for Humanitarian Actors (Prioritizing Protection and Healing)

1. Immediate Food Security Restoration: Humanitarian donors must immediately commit to restoring and maintaining WFP food assistance at the full entitlement level (at least $12.50 per person per month). This is necessary to prevent the immediate humanitarian catastrophe of malnutrition and to reverse the predictable escalation of protection failures, including trafficking, child labor, and child marriage, driven by economic desperation.

2. MHPSS Investment: Mental health and psychosocial support (MHPSS) must be elevated to a core protection mechanism, recognizing that current hardships perpetuate high rates of psychological distress. Investment must prioritize the recruitment of specialized clinical staff and ensure that livelihood programs are implemented, as data confirms that receiving income is a significant protective factor against PTSD and despair.

5.2. Recommendations for the Government of Bangladesh (Enhancing Legal Protection)

1. Formalize Refugee Status: The Government of Bangladesh should move toward ratifying the 1951 Refugee Convention and incorporating its essential protections into domestic law. While resource constraints are acknowledged, formalizing refugee status is crucial to provide the population with legal identity, education, and access to livelihood opportunities necessary for long-term stability and dignity.

2. Controlled Livelihood Opportunities: Policy consideration should be given to establishing pilot programs that allow controlled economic engagement. Providing refugees with income opportunities is not just an economic measure but a direct public health intervention against depression and despair.

5.3. Recommendations for the International Community (Accountability and Durable Solutions)

1. Conditioned Repatriation and Law Repeal: The international community must maintain and intensify pressure on Myanmar, explicitly conditioning any repatriation efforts on the verifiable repeal of the 1982 Citizenship Law and the establishment of guarantees for security, equality, and citizenship rights. Accountability for the genocide and the deliberate creation of statelessness must remain a diplomatic imperative.

2. Challenge Geopolitical Impunity: Major global powers must utilize diplomatic and economic leverage to circumvent the non-interference norms used by China and ASEAN to shield the regime. Pressure must be applied via trade and investment to compel behavioral change in Naypyidaw, thereby breaking the geopolitical lock-in that perpetuates the crisis.

3. Expand Resettlement Quotas: Responsibility-sharing for this mass atrocity crime must be demonstrated through the expansion of resettlement quotas far beyond current symbolic numbers, offering a tangible pathway out of indefinite limbo for a greater proportion of the most vulnerable refugees.

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